Polymarket’s $8 Billion Bet: CFTC Greenlight, ICE Investment, and Google Finance Push Prediction Markets Into U.S. Mainstream

Prediction platform Polymarket is moving from crypto niche to U.S. financial mainstream, capping a breakout year with fresh regulatory and institutional momentum. In the past week, the company secured an amended designation from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that clears the way for a fully regulated American relaunch, while trading volume on the platform has surged to more than $1 billion in a single week.

The new CFTC order allows Polymarket to operate as an intermediated contract market in the United States, putting it under the same kind of surveillance, clearing, and reporting rules that govern traditional derivatives exchanges. That means U.S. traders will be able to access Polymarket event contracts through futures commission merchants and mainstream brokerages once the company finishes standing up additional compliance systems. It also marks a full regulatory comeback after Polymarket paid a penalty and exited the U.S. in 2022 for running unregistered markets.

Behind the legal win is a broader push to embed prediction markets inside conventional finance and media products. Google Finance is rolling out odds data from Polymarket and rival Kalshi, letting users see live market-implied probabilities alongside stock quotes and economic indicators. For the prediction startups, that integration is as much about legitimacy as distribution, framing their contracts as tools for gauging expectations on inflation, elections, and even weather events rather than just another flavor of gambling.

Institutional money is following. Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, has agreed to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket at an approximately $8 billion pre-money valuation and will become a global distributor of the platform’s event-driven data to professional investors. ICE’s stock ticked higher after the announcement, as Wall Street analysts framed the deal as a long-term bet that prediction data will become a standard sentiment signal for traders.

At the same time, Polymarket has been lining up consumer-facing partners ahead of its regulated U.S. launch. Daily fantasy giant PrizePicks plans to offer Polymarket-style sports and pop culture contracts to its millions of users, describing the new products as a “wide range of sports, entertainment, and cultural moments.” The domestic platform is described as “soon-to-launch,” with timing influenced by the resolution of federal government shutdown disruptions that have slowed contract self-certifications.

For Americans watching from the sidelines, these moves suggest that prediction markets are poised to sit alongside options chains and fantasy lineups in mainstream apps. As CFTC rules harden and blue-chip investors pile in, Polymarket is positioning its yes-or-no markets as a new way for U.S. users to trade—and test—their opinions on everything from interest rates to reality TV outcomes.